When Raila Odinga, Party Leader of Orange Democratic Movement announced a shift in the party’s 20‑year celebration timeline, the news rippled through Kenya’s political landscape. The decision, unveiled on , moves the flagship ODM@20 Grand Celebrations from the original October 10‑12 slot to in Mombasa. Junet Mohammed, National Assembly Minority Leader and chair of the organizing committee, framed the postponement as a ‘move toward inclusivity’ after a surprising boycott by local ODM MPs at a regional gathering in Kisii County. The twist is that the boycott highlighted growing internal dissent, a development that could reshape the party’s strategy ahead of the 2027 elections.
Background: ODM@20 and Its Political Significance
Since its formation in 2005, the Orange Democratic Movement has positioned itself as a champion of democratic reforms and de‑volution. Marking two decades, the ODM@20 agenda was envisioned as a nation‑wide showcase of grassroots solidarity, echoing the party’s historic victories in 2007 and 2013. Historically, the celebrations have rotated through four counties—Busia, Wajir, Kisii and Narok—each chosen to highlight regional diversity. This year’s initial plan, set for early October in Mombasa, was meant to culminate a marathon of county events that started in March.
But wait—political tides shift fast. With the 2022 general election already two years past, many analysts see ODM’s 20th anniversary as a litmus test for its relevance as it eyes the 2027 presidential race. Party heavyweight Fred Matiangi, former Interior Cabinet Secretary, has been quietly courting disaffected MPs, suggesting a possible third‑force challenge to both the incumbent and the main opposition.
The Kisii Boycott and Emerging Factionalism
The regional celebration in Kisii on at Gusii Stadium drew thousands of supporters, yet the stands were eerily empty of the county’s elected ODM representatives. Only Governor Simba Arati and nominated MP Irine Mayaka appeared in official capacity. The absentee list read like a who’s‑who of the party’s old guard: MPs John Okoth, Grace Nyukuri, and Samuel Kipsang all opted out, citing “strategic disagreements”.
Insiders say the boycott was less about logistics and more about a simmering power struggle. Rumours swirled that the absent MPs were leaning toward Fred Matiangi, who, according to a senior source, “has been meeting with several county leaders in private, gauging support for a potential presidential bid”. The move sent shockwaves through ODM’s national apparatus, prompting an emergency consultative meeting at the Serena Hotel in Nairobi.
Expanded County Calendar: From Soccer Tournaments to Cultural Galas
In response, the ODM@20 committee unveiled an ambitious, stretched‑out itinerary designed to plug the perceived gaps. The new schedule kicks off with a two‑day soccer tournament on , staged in Eldoret’s Moi Stadium, a nod to the party’s long‑standing love for football. Following that, the celebrations roll out as follows:
- October 15: Kajiado County – tribal drum performances and youth entrepreneurship fair.
- October 26: Turkana County – livestock expo and peace dialogue with community elders.
- November 2: Kilifi County (Magarini) – coastal cultural showcase and marine conservation workshop.
- November 9: Nairobi County – policy round‑table featuring think‑tanks and university scholars.
- November 14‑16: Mombasa – grand finale with concerts, keynote addresses, and a symbolic hand‑over of the party flag.
Party Chairman Gladys Wanga stressed that the broadened agenda “allows supporters who cannot travel to the coast to experience ODM’s core values on home ground”. The rollout aims to cement loyalty in counties that have traditionally been ODM bastions while courting swing regions.
Political Calculus Ahead of the 2027 Presidential Race
Behind the festive veneer lies a strategic chessboard. By extending the celebrations, ODM hopes to showcase an image of unity and grassroots resonance just as the 2027 election calendar starts to take shape. Analysts from the University of Nairobi argue that the timing is “perfectly calibrated” to pre‑empt any momentum that Matiangi might build among disgruntled MPs.
Interestingly, the postponement also buys the party breathing room to negotiate internal reforms. A senior ODM strategist, who requested anonymity, revealed that the committee is using the county visits to “conduct informal bar‑raising sessions, listening to local grievances and adjusting policy platforms accordingly”. If true, the move could rebalance power within the party, reinforcing Odinga’s central authority while offering a platform for emerging leaders.
Reactions from Stakeholders and the Road Ahead
Reactions have been mixed. Grassroots activists lauded the inclusive approach, posting photos of the Kisii stadium that now sport banner slogans like “ODM United”. Conversely, opposition voice Samuel Karanja of the United Democratic Alliance warned that “postponing the celebrations is a thinly veiled attempt to buy time while the party scrambles to patch its internal fractures”.
The Kenyan media landscape, from Standard Media to Capital FM, has been buzzing with commentary, emphasizing that the real test will be turnout on November 14 in Mombasa. Will the extended calendar translate into higher voter registration numbers? Early polls in Kajiado and Turkana suggest a modest uptick in ODM‑registered voters, but the final verdict will only emerge after the grand events conclude.
What Comes Next?
Looking forward, the ODM@20 organizers have pledged to release a post‑celebration report outlining policy commitments derived from county dialogues. Moreover, a “Youth Council” is set to be inaugurated during the Nairobi event, signaling a potential shift toward generational leadership—a move that could reshape the party’s candidate selection process for 2027.
In short, the postponement is more than a calendar tweak; it’s a strategic maneuver designed to solidify ODM’s base, mitigate defections, and project a renewed image of democratic participation as Kenya edges closer to another pivotal election.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did ODM move the anniversary dates?
Party leaders said the shift allows more counties to host events, ensuring supporters who can’t travel to the coast still feel included. The move also follows a boycott in Kisii, signalling a need to address internal dissent before the grand finale.
Which counties will now host ODM@20 events?
Beyond the original four (Busia, Wajir, Kisii, Narok), the calendar now adds Kajiado (Oct 15), Turkana (Oct 26), Kilifi’s Magarini (Nov 2) and Nairobi (Nov 9), plus a soccer tournament in Eldoret on Oct 9‑10.
What does the Kisii boycott reveal about ODM's internal politics?
The absence of several ODM MPs suggested growing frustration with the party’s direction and hinted at a possible realignment toward former interior minister Fred Matiangi, who is rumored to be eyeing a presidential run in 2027.
How might the expanded celebrations affect the 2027 presidential race?
By showcasing unity and engaging voters across diverse regions, ODM hopes to solidify its grassroots base, counter defections, and present a refreshed platform that could attract swing voters ahead of the 2027 contest.
What new initiatives are planned for the final Mombasa celebration?
The Mombasa finale will feature a concert series, policy round‑tables, a youth council launch, and a symbolic hand‑over of the ODM flag, aiming to blend cultural festivity with political messaging.
October 5, 2025 AT 20:13
While the postponement may appear as a tactical shuffle, it also signals a genuine attempt to broaden participation across Kenya’s diverse counties. The leadership’s acknowledgment of the Kisii boycott reflects a willingness to listen to dissenting voices, which is essential for any party that claims democratic values. However, we cannot overlook the urgency to address the underlying grievances that prompted the boycott in the first place. The extended calendar offers a platform for grassroots engagement, but the party must ensure that these events are more than symbolic gestures. In short, the move is a double‑edged sword that demands both inclusivity and decisive action.